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Dmitry_Medvedev_18_December_2008-5

Daniel Ortega and Dmitry Medvedev

How democracies perish is a very old question and the various answers given by political science are still disputed. How young and unconsolidated/aspirant democracies perish is an easier question, given the fact that some concrete lessons are offered generously these days, and their charm seems irresistible for would-be autocrats.

The very much praised phenomenon of democratic diffusion during the wave of democratization in Latin America since the 1970s seems to be undermined at the beginning of this century by another type of diffusion, of an authoritarian kind this time. The authoritarian diffusion manifests itself in various fields, but what is striking is the fact that the attacks against the media, the party system, the institutional checks and balances or the civil society are replicated from one country to the next, in a continuous process of imitating and learning from your neighbor the art of destroying democracy by just simply  asserting your democratic credentials and good intentions.

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Rezultate parţiale ale alegerilor din Germania. Courtesy of International Spiegel Online

Rezultate parţiale ale alegerilor din Germania. Courtesy of International Spiegel Online

Duminică a avut loc in Germania bilantul marii coalitii CDU-CSU si SPD. Angela Merkel rămâne cancelar, dar într-un peisaj politic transformat în mod radical. Alegerile pentru Bundestag din 27 septembrie au produs mai multe surprize şi chiar câteva recorduri istorice pentru sistemul de partide german, aflat într-o proces de masive transformări, care cu siguranţă vor continua în anii următori. In primul rând, a devenit şi mai evidentă decât în 2005 transformarea sistemului de partide într-o competiţie cu cinci actori, chiar şase dacă socotim CDU şi CSU în mod separat, cu atât mai mult cu cât CSU,  gruparea creştin conservatoare din Bayern, este al treilea partid în ordinea mărimii în noua coaliţie de centru dreapta a cancelarului Merkel.

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A ground-based interceptor lifts off from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., Dec. 5, 2008. (DoD photo by Joe Davila, U.S. Air Force/Released)

A ground-based interceptor lifts off from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., Dec. 5, 2008. (DoD photo by Joe Davila, U.S. Air Force/Released)

The President of the United States, Barack Obama has announced on September 17, a major shift in the policy of the US concerning the deployment of anti-ballistic missile defenses in Central and Eastern Europe in order to protect its European allies from a possible Iranian threat. In this article I will argue that this move is a part of a larger strategy of retrenchment, designed to make American power more flexible and adaptable in an international system defined both by symmetrical and asymmetrical threats. The move does not signal by any means a waning of America’s commitment to Europe’s security or for that matter, the security of Central and Eastern Europe. Canceling the deployment of the Ground Based Interceptors in Poland and the X band radar in the Czech Republic does not mean the United States is giving up on creating a national missile defense capability.

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imagesAt the beginning of this month, two very troubling reports on the state of democracy in the world have been released almost simultaneously, and both are concerned with the highest locus of legitimacy and authority when dealing with democracy and human rights, the UN and, most specifically, the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC), the successor of the UN Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR) since 2006. The first research is Freedom House’s annual report on the activity of UNHRC and the second was released by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). This article will present the conclusions of these two reports, briefly corroborating their results with the most recent Freedom House’s Freedom in the World Report (2008) scores on political rights and civil liberties (a scale from 1 to 7, 1 for the highest degree of freedom, and 7 for the lowest level).

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Munich Agreement: Neville Chamberlain, Joachim von Ribbentrop, Edouard Deladier, Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, Galeazzo Ciano

Munich Agreement: Neville Chamberlain, Joachim von Ribbentrop, Edouard Daladier, Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, Galeazzo Ciano

The term appeasement is unpopular today both in politics and in academia as it is associated with the policy pursued by France and Great Britain towards Nazi Germany in the 1930s. The highpoint of this policy was reached on September 29, 1938 in Munich when the Western Powers gave in to Hitler’s territorial demands concerning Czechoslovakia. Since then the term has been associated with political and military weakness and treachery. This article represents the second installment in a series  dedicated to the commemorations of 70 years since the start of World War II and will deal with the political implications of appeasement. In the following lines I will outline the meaning of appeasement and its implications for the international system. My approach will draw upon the work of Robert Gilpin and of Mark R. Brawley and will concentrate on defining appeasement and explaining the political context in which it was implemented.

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World War II fighting

Few events have had such a deep impact on world history as the conflict that griped the international system seventy years ago. As all great power wars in the last five hundred years it started in Europe, with a bid a for hegemony made by a Germany, the second in twenty-five years, but it soon spread to North Africa, the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans. World War II was a total war, the second in less than a generation, and as such it involved attacks on civilians and genocide. From a military and strategic point of view it was a total war, as the aim of the war was the re-ordering of the entire international system and the destruction of some of its members; its scope was not limited to the European continent, it saw an unprecedented level of societal mobilization for the war effort in every country involved and it was prosecuted with every means available, culminating in the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

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Bundestag

Foto: Civitas'99

Duminică au avut loc ultimele alegeri importante în Germania  înaintea scrutinului din 27 septembrie pentru Bundestag. In urma alegerilor pentru Landtag în Thüringen, Sachsen (teritorii din fosta Germanie de Est) şi Saarland (micutul stat de circa un milion de locuitori la graniţa cu Franţa), Uniunea CDU-CSU rămâne în prima poziţie în legislativele statelor federale, dar departe de majoritatea foarte solidă pe care a obţinut-o în urmă cu 5 ani.

În Thüringen, CDU a obţinut 31.2% din voturi (43% in 2004), SPD – 18.5% (14.5% în 2004), Die Linke – 27.4% ( 26.1%), FDP – 7.6%  ( 3.6%), Grüne – 6.2%, (4.5%)

În Sachsen, CDU – 40.2% (41,1%), SPD – 10.4% (9.8%), Die Linke – 20.6% (23.6%), FDP – 10% ( 5.9%), Grüne – 6.4%, (5.1%)

În Saarland, CDU – 34.5% ( 47.5%), SPD – 24.5% (30.8%), Die Linke – 21.3% (2.3%), FDP – 9.2%  (5.2% ), Grüne – 5.9%, (5.6%)

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În martie 2009, Revista 22 a publicat un bilanţ critic al politicii externe  a României  în mandatului lui Traian Băsescu, realizat de Ileana Racheru şi Octavian Manea. Dosarul celor doi are meritul de a privi dezinhibat şi nepartizan politica externă a României şi de a evidenţia direcţiile şi rezultatele acesteia în timpul celor aproape cinci ani de când Traian Băsescu a devenit preşedinte. În linii mari sunt de acord cu concluziile acestui bilanţ. Totuşi, voi evidenţia anumiţi factori care au influenţat în mod decisiv politica externă a României între 2004 şi 2009.

Un factor decisiv, dar neglijat în bilanţ, a fost impactul personalităţii lui Traian Băsescu asupra politicii externe româneşti. Rolul lui Traian Băsescu în politica externă a fost hotărâtor în aceşti 5 ani, impunând opţiunile şi priorităţile şi neacceptând abaterile de la acestea. Declaraţiile sale tranşante şi proiectele politice au marcat politica externă a României. Nu se poate vorbi de o izolare a României pe plan extern, aşa cum acuză criticii săi, dimpotrivă mandatul său a fost caracterizat de activism diplomatic.

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În cadrul revistei RAND News Bulletin, analistul şi diplomatul Robert D. Blackwill lansează o ideea provocatoare cu privire la rezultatul actualei crize economice globale: efectele geopolitice ale crizei vor fi în general neglijabile, iar actuala structură a sistemului internaţional, în care Statele Unite ocupă un rol preponderent, va rămâne neafectată. Pentru a-şi susţine argumentul, Robert D. Blackwill apelează la argumente geopolitice şi istorice, remarcând că din cele 12 recesiuni pe care SUA le-a traversat din 1945 încoace, niciuna nu a afectat în mod negativ poziţia Statelor Unite sau structura sistemului internaţional. Actuala recesiune nu constituie un eveniment socio-politic capabil să afecteze distribuţia puterii în cadrul sistemului internaţional, iar în general crizele economice nu cauzează schimbări geopolitice majore, mai curând acestea din urmă conduc la apariţia primelor.

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Administraţia americană a făcut săptămâna trecută un pas plin de consecinţe în politica sa în America Centrală şi de Sud. Poate că prima pagină a făcut-o tema bazelor militare din Columbia, deformată până la transformarea ei în prilej pentru Chavez de a ameninţa cu înarmarea ţării sale pentru un eventual război, dar nu aici este adevăratul subiect. Adevăratul subiect se află în micuţul Honduras, ţară bananieră şi aparent departe de marile mize internaţionale.

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